Andrew, I enjoy your writing, exploring and coming up with alternatives to total civil war. Accuracy of prediction is less important at this stage than thinking forward and trying to conjure up alternative and less destructive scenarios, a "thought experiment" as it were. An orderly deliniation and seperation of the different populations (politically speaking) in the US, while maintaining some external consistancy against the rest of the world is far more desirable, in my humble opinion, than a violent reckoning.