BBC is now reporting "China may give Russia weapons for Ukraine war, Anthony Blinken warns."

I wrote last month that:

"China can not afford to have Russia fail in Ukraine. If a settlement is not reached that gives Russia some territory in Donbas and Luhansk and allows it to keep Crimea, this war will drag on and China will first covertly and then, depending on the future of the hostilities, openly support Russia.

There are 3 possible outcomes of the Ukraine war in 2023:

1- Ukraine loses: In this context, this means that Russia controls Ukrainian territory East of the Dnieper river. Hostilities cease, but everyone knows it is temporary. Europe is vulnerable both economically and politically and can no longer give unlimited support to the U.S. The EU will seek rapprochement with Russia and the U.K. will effectively become a giant U.S. aircraft carrier. China will begin hostilities immediately against Taiwan before the west has a chance to replenish its military supplies and repair political relationships.

2-War drags on as a shooting stalemate, depleting both Western supplies as well as Ukrainian and Russian lives. In the meantime, China can become an arms production facility for Russia as well as a transit route for North Korean munitions in exchange for Russia’s energy and military support against Taiwan when the time comes. China will then wait until the US elections, maybe. At a moment of their choice, they can just blockade Taiwan and dare the U.S. to escalate in the middle of an ongoing European war, upcoming elections, another $100 billion lost, and approaching winter of 2023.

3- Ukraine wins. In this context, it would mean a routing and disintegration of the Russian army and perhaps regime change in Moscow. Will Xi Jinping just sit idly by while the U.S. perhaps replaces but at the very least, humiliates another leader who in western parlance is a fellow “communist”? Will he let the U.S. dictate the terms of a Russian capitulation? The terms which will surely seize the only thing that Russia will be forced to offer, its oil, gas and mineral wealth? More importantly will Xi Jinping allow the U.S. (and NATO) complete its encirclement of China by establishing control over Russia and its resources as well as the string of bases it already has along the Pacific Rim?It doesn’t seem likely.

China will never allow this and will lend materiel, economic, and logistical support for Russia, as well as becoming more belligerent against Taiwan to take the pressure off."

I appreciate thoughts and feedback (to ease my mind).