Look:
-US oil production had been declining from 9 million bb/day to less than 6 million by March 2003.
-We invaded Iraq under false pretenses to control their oil in March 2003 but Saddam burned the fields and oil production in Iraq did not recover to 2000 levels until 2011
-2008 crash was a result of the resulting oil shock and oil going to $140/bbl due declining extraction.
-The shale “revolution” bought us time and pushed our production back to 9 million bbl/day only in 2015 but has peaked by 2019 and the decline is both precipitous and irreversible. All but the Permian basin is in terminal decline and that is barely hangin on
-The boost from shale fields peaked in Dec 2019 when we reached almost 13 million bbl/day but in the meantime our appetite has increased to 20Mbbl/day
-Saudi Arabia, whose oil reserves have magically not declined in the last 30 years is unable to boost production
-Iranian oil is and will remain inaccessible to the U.S.
-We want—nay NEED Russia’s oil. (As well as gas, coal, gold platinum, palladium etc.)
-But we can’t exactly pull an Iraq in Russia can we? Much better if we contain, encircle and threaten Russia and goad them to react, hopefully over-react so we angle for regime change or at the very least to degrade their economy and military to force caputilation
-Crazy as Vlad is he is unwilling to roll over for Exxon and BP and our rulers. He has refused to allow us to encircle him and in the meantime is cozying up to China and BRICs countries.
-Chinese oil demand since 2000 has also exploded - from 4.6 million bbl/dy to almost 13 million bbl/day in 2022, which makes an alliance between Russian oil and Chinese energy (and food) demand a natural fit, especially since they share one of the longest land borders, bypassing China’s one big vulnerability - the Malacca Straits.
-China is extremely vulnerable to a blockade of the Malacca Straits by the U.S. Navy and is increasing unwilling to tolerate this vulnerability.
-This resource war will go on to become a global conflagration.
Empires engage in wars when their resources run dry, no matter what kind of excuse they concoct about “rules based order” (their rules of course), saving democracy or stopping (someone else’s) imperial ambitions.
