Sorry but that's delusional. What do you think "winning" looks like for Ukraine? Do you think Ukrainian stormtroopers will ride their bullet ridden Bradleys into Moscow December 2025 after 1 million in casualties?
Winning for Moscow is a destroyed and deindustrilized Ukraine, a depleted NATO and a stronger global South. Let's see if that is happening.
BRICS+ is getting stronger by the month and Western sanctions against Russia have obviously failed. Not only is Russia building alliances, it is also busy re-imagining trade routes to further diminish the West's hegemony.
Evoking a $11 billion lend-lease from a bygone era and equating it to what is going on in 21st Century Europe facing a nuclear-armed military force backed by a $3 trillion economy is seriously disingenuous by the way, - in an environment where bilateral trade between just China and Russia is close to $300 billion.
As a history professor you should admit that Crimea will never be given back to Ukraine. The British tried to take it, the Ottomans tried it, and now we are trying it. It is an existential issue for Russia and it will not (no matter who is running the show) allow itself to be bottled in the Black Sea and threatened by the West.
The collective conventional powers of the West will never be enough to overcome Russia/China/Iran axis. They have too much energy, too many people and a huge industrial base. And now they are openly collaborating and will soon co-opt India while Turkey is itching to become more relevant South of the Caspian Sea and secure it's energy supply. I hope no-one is considering a "tactical" nuclear option.
China will never allow Russia to fall - it will lose its access to energy and will forever be choked by the USN at Malacca Straits and on its Western border if Russia falls. China is no longer interested in just being considered a second-rate power and a docile manufacturing-plant for the West. It will increase its support for Russia as long as we increase our belligerence against Beijing, and please don't try to tell me we are not being belligerent.
Wars are energy intensive activities a you point out and a couple of refineries shut-down close to the Ukranian border will not effect Russia. The Russian Federation is almost twice as big as the U.S., spread out and its serious production capacity is not something Ukraine can destroy with a few drones.
Although at the moment U.S. is the largest producer of oil in the world, we also are the largest consumer, Europe on the other hand is energy starved and can't contribute to the industrial output needed to crush Russia. Sadly, the "Shale miracle" that put us there is declining in production and will start to pinch by 2025.
The "gas-station-masquerading-as-a-nation" has no such problems. We (Humanity) are in for a rough ride and it is not a ride that has winners, only many losers.
https://www.csis.org/blogs/post-soviet-post/crimeas-strategic-value-russia
https://time.com/6695261/ukraine-forever-war-danger/
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4481154-ukraine-can-no-longer-win/
https://www.artberman.com/blog/beginning-of-the-end-for-the-permian/
https://news.yahoo.com/finance/news/china-pace-buy-record-amount-013006401.html
