Well, first... by 2026, global oil consumption is projected to reach 104.1 mb/d per the IEA. We not only can't stop we need to keep increasing to keep our capiltalist system afloat.

https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-2021

The point is, as our consumption is increasing static-state forecasting is bound to be inaccurate on the positive side.

Also, the "proven" reserves of oil are about 1.6 trillion barrels but not "confirmed" and the industry itself admits not all of it is recoverable no matter what the price rises to.

Not all reserves are created equal. The data masks large disparity in production costs for the economic recovery of the oil, and a disparity in reserve accounting standards. No matter what though, if we use more energy than oil contains inherently to extract that oil, the party is over.

Energy return on energy invested needs to be above 1 for it to matter, above 3 for us to sustain our so called "civilization" and above 20 to spread that civilization to soon to be 9 billion people.

https://tupa.gtk.fi/raportti/arkisto/70_2019.pdf

Of course, if we did ,we will surely burn everything we can see around us.

But also, speaking of fallacious arguments, 30 years, 45 years or 54... Countless people dying or suffering a decade later than we initially predicted can hardly be held up as a glowing success of humanity's wisdom can it? Pretty soon we will be discussing how many angels can dance on the tip of a pin.

Wishing it wasn't so won't solve our predicament.